Unhappy new year for the US patent market?
Managing IP is part of the Delinian Group, Delinian Limited, 4 Bouverie Street, London, EC4Y 8AX, Registered in England & Wales, Company number 00954730
Copyright © Delinian Limited and its affiliated companies 2024

Accessibility | Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Modern Slavery Statement

Unhappy new year for the US patent market?

IP Nav’s Erich Spangenberg’s predictions for 2015 will make gloomy reading for IP practitioners – he says patent reform will pass, IPRs will become even more popular, patent lawsuits will fall, GAAP write-downs are on their way and big IP law firms will make cuts

Patent practitioners returning to work after the holidays are now looking ahead to what 2015 will bring. Their sense of good will and cheer built up over the holidays may soon disappear: Erich Spangenberg, owner of IP Nav, has depressing news for them.

People of a more pro-patent bent were not happy in 2014, with inter partes review becoming an increasingly popular threat to the validity of patents and the Supreme Court’s Alice decision casting any patent seen to be directed to an abstract idea in doubt.

In a blog post detailing his outlook for 2015, Spangenberg said he does not think “we’re at the low tide mark and things will improve in the patent market in 2015”.

He made five predictions for the year:

1. Patent reform will be enacted and include fee shifting.

2. Inter partes review (IPR) filings will increase.

3. The number of patent lawsuit filings will continue to decline.

4. Significant GAAP write-downs are coming.

5. Major cuts are coming at big law firms focused on IP litigation.

Reform a sure thing?

With Republicans now controlling Congress, the expectation is building that patent reform will pass this year after stalling in 2014. Spangenberg advises patent practitioners to “accept it and learn to deal with it”.

He said: “The only question in my mind is whether patent reform will get wrapped into broader tort reform. If it does, it will slow things down. My expectation is that until there is a change in the Oval Office, Congress will not tie patent reform and tort reform together.

“On the legislative front, look for new patent legislation to be signed into law in the first half of 2015. It came close in 2014 – it will happen in 2015.”

This will be warmly received by those advocating for reform. Others have suggested that it would be a good idea to wait to see the impact of the last reforms and the Supreme Court’s recent decisions play out first. “It is naive to expect that reason, reliable data, potential harm, and unintended consequences will slow down reform,” cautioned Spangenberg.

The House of Representatives will lead the way and the Senate will follow with a more limited bill, predicted Spangenberg. He said the main elements of the bill will likely include: mandatory or presumptive fee shifting, more detailed complaint requirements, “transparency” on ownership and financial interests, and enhanced IPR provisions.

“While I’m fine with the concept of these changes, the bill will undoubtedly be poorly drafted and simply lead to more disputes,” said Spangenberg.

He said that judicial “patent reform” will likely continue as well. “The Supreme Court already has a couple of cases due for decision and at least the one (on district court claim construction) has the potential to lead to further lack of clarity in patent litigation,” he said.

A gloomy prognosis was given for business method patents as well. “More significantly, I believe we’re only a single vote change away on the Supreme Court and Federal Circuit from effectively eliminating business method patents. A resignation and a new appointment at either court, or a change of heart by one judge, could have massive implications for the patent market,” he said.

All of the blog post is well worth a read for Spangenberg’s commentary on his other four predictions, including why IPR will increase “but not for the reason you think”.

more from across site and ros bottom lb

More from across our site

A 36-member team from Zhong Lun Law Firm, including six partners, will join the newly formed East IP Group
The Delhi High Court sided with Ericsson against Indian smartphone maker Lava, bringing the companies' nine-year dispute to a close
We provide a rundown of Managing IP’s news and analysis from the week, and review what’s been happening elsewhere in IP
Tennessee has passed the ELVIS Act, a law that fights against AI models that mimic the voice and likeness of music artists
Rob Stien, chief communications and public policy officer at InterDigital, says the EU has forgotten innovators while trying to solve an issue that doesn’t exist
As Australia’s Qantm IP leans towards being acquired by a private equity company, sources discuss what it could mean for IP firms
Law firms that are conscious of their role in society are more likely to win work, according to a survey of over 23,000 in-house professionals
Nghiem Xuan Bac Pham, managing partner of Vision & Associates, discusses opportunities created by the US-China rift as well as profitability issues facing IP practices
Douglas Leite and two of his colleagues were intrigued by Bhering Advogados’s mission to grow its patent litigation practice
Each week Managing IP speaks to a different IP practitioner about their life and career
Gift this article