In 1159 John of Salisbury wrote in his Metalogicon a passage that uniquely conveys the sense of the importance of patents in the innovation process: "Bernard of Chartres used to say that we are like dwarfs on the shoulders of giants, so that we can see more than they, and things at a greater distance, not by virtue of any sharpness on sight on our part, or any physical distinction, but because we are carried high and raised up by their giant size."
The scenarios project
In 2004 the European Patent Office initiated a scenarios project to examine the environment in which it operates. The primary aim was to ensure that the organization and the system it serves remain fit for purpose. This investigation, which entailed simulating possible future worlds (or scenarios), developed from a small, internally focussed project to a wide-ranging exercise involving more than 150 experts from many disciplines and geographic regions worldwide, each with a unique perspective on IP and its likely evolution. More than 100 interviews were conducted from the world of business, civil society, policy makers, IP associations, international organizations, patent offices, the media and academic institutions. These disparate views drawn together – augmented by in-depth background research – form the building blocks upon which the scenarios were constructed by a group of scenario builders chosen from within the EPO. To the best of our knowledge, no comparative exercise of its kind has been undertaken in this field before.
What soon became apparent was that the future of the EPO had to be considered within a broader context: both within the future of IP in Europe as well as the wider global IP environment. From an extensive set of internal workshops and much other painstaking deliberation, the scenario builders concluded that there were two key questions that the scenarios needed to answer, namely:
- How might IP systems evolve by 2025?
- What global legitimacy might such regimes have?
Finally, a set of four scenarios transpired, which were individually named: Market Rules, where business is the main driver; Whose Game?, where emerging geopolitical powers have their say; Trees of Knowledge, where societal concerns set the agenda; and Blue Skies, where the IP system is required to respond to the changing nature and pace of technology. The detailed scenarios and their background, including the individual interviews, are available free of charge from the official EPO website.
What are scenarios?
Scenarios can be described as a collection of likely stories about possible futures. They are built to provide decision makers with a simulation tool to test their strategic thinking about possible futures. While traditional (single dimensional) business forecasts or predictions tend to assume that the world of tomorrow looks similar to that of today, scenarios offer a holistic view encapsulating multiple visualizations. In certain situations forecasts are adequate, but when dealing with complex issues in the medium to longer term, there is a strong likelihood that the predictable linear future (that is, business as usual) will be replaced by more disruptive changes to the status quo, particularly when there are conflicting opinions on the subject.